42 Observations: To this point of the Preds’ 2018-19 season

The Nashville Predators are 48 games into the 2018-19 season and they’ve turned in a 28-16-4 record and sit a single win back of the Winnipeg Jets for the Central Division lead.

You know how Elliotte Friedman has his 31 Thoughts? Well, here are my 42 Observations to this point in the campaign. Why “42 Observations” and not 48? Frankly, because I already had this graphic and didn’t want to ask the digital designer here at the station to waste time creating another one. He’s got other fish to fry. The last thing he needs is the hockey guy asking him for yet another image. Efficiency, people!

1. How do you not begin with Pekka Rinne? At 35 years old, he won his first Vezina Trophy last season as the NHL’s best goaltender. Nobody counted him out but everybody seemed to be watching the growth of young back-up Juuse Saros very closely in an effort to predict when the passing of the torch would happen. Not only did the veteran sign a new contract extension on his birthday (again) but he’s put together probably his best first-half season to date. He’s played in 34 games so far and he’s only given up more than four goals once. For comparison, he allowed five goals or more six times in 2017-18 including once in each October, November and December 2017.
2. And the defense in front of him is better too. In his Vezina-winning campaign, Rinne faced 30 or more shots 37 times, including 22 times in the 2017 portion of the 2017-18 schedule. Compare that to just nine times in the 2018 portion of this year.
3. General Manager David Poile has been relatively quiet thus far. Okay, yes, he elected to claim forward Phil Di Guiseppe off waivers from the Carolina Hurricanes on January 1 but, other than that, he’s been very quiet. Almost too quiet compared to recent years. He acquired center Kyle Turris in early November last season, he pulled the trigger on the deal that brought Ryan Johansen to Music City in exchange for Seth Jones two months before the trade deadline in 2016 and then there was the acquisition of Michael Del Zotto for Kevin Klein in January 2014 that still goes down as one of Poile’s rare misses. But this season so far? Crickets.
4. Speaking of moves… the trade deadline is about five weeks away and much has been written about who Poile and the Preds may go after. It’s no secret that I would put Philadelphia Flyers forward Wayne Simmonds at the top of that list. He’s exactly what Nashville needs. He’s a big, hulking forward who has proven time and time again that he can score 25 goals, post 50 points and — wait for it — camp out in front of the opposing goalie on the power play.
5. Remember, the Predators don’t need a scoring machine to come in and save their season. They need somebody who can add grit, a hint of nastiness and a touch of scoring to the lineup all while demanding respect on the man advantage so his teammates have more time and space to operate. Simmonds, 30, does all of those things and at a very manageable $3.975 million cap hit.
6. If the Flyers hang onto Simmonds or he sadly goes elsewhere — everybody say it with me: “NOT WINNIPEG!” — then Poile could look to the Minnesota Wild and inquire about winger Nino Niederreiter. The Swiss winger is essentially a second Craig Smith. He consistently registers 20 goals and 45 points. Is he just more of the same? Yes. But wouldn’t you take another Craig Smith if the price was right? In short, he would be yet another offensive threat for the (hopefully) long playoff run. Oh, and Roman Josi, Kevin Fiala and Yannick Weber are all very familiar with Niederreiter as some combination of the four have played together for the Swiss national team at one point or another. UPDATE: Niederreiter was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday, January 17.
7. Forward Micheal Ferland of the Carolina Hurricanes has also been mentioned as a possible target for Nashville. The Swan River, Manitoba native could be a better long-term fit seeing as how he’s 26 and fits the mold of the young corps in Music City. He plays a similar style to Simmonds and should be cheaper. He’s only got one 20+ goal season however so there’s a little bit of a “is he worth the price?” argument where as with Simmonds you know what you’re getting.
8. A name being linked to the Preds for some time is Detroit Red Wings forward Gustav Nyquist. Is he Swedish? Yes. Does Nashville love them some Swedes? Also yes. But the price will be high. Do they want to use the same assets on Nyquist (who’s a nice player but doesn’t specifically address a need) that they’d spend on Simmonds (who clearly addresses several needs)? I say keep laser focus on Simmonds then, if something unfavorable happens, turn your attention to Nyquist.
9. A common thread with Philadelphia and Minnesota, by the way, is the history Poile shares with their GM’s. Chuck Fletcher may be the new guy in Philly but Poile mentored him after Chuck’s dad, Cliff, mentored Poile in the 1970’s. Paul Fenton, of course, was the AGM in Music City for 12 years before getting the big job in Minnesota this past summer. Obviously nobody’s going to do anybody any favors but it is worth noting as the level of mutual respect may get a deal done without a lot of the unnecessary-yet-typical “negotiation dancing” usually required this time of year.
10. All that being said, does Nashville need to acquire a piece before the February 25th trade deadline in order to seriously contend for the Stanley Cup? In my opinion, yes. Two pieces, actually. I believe they need a scoring winger on either the second or third lines and they need to shore up the bottom defense pair. Come playoff time, Josi, PK Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm can’t all log 30 minutes each. I mean, they probably could but they’d be worn out by the second round and what good does that do if you need to go two more rounds after that? Dan Hamhuis and Yannick Weber have been the best of the third pairing combinations but they’re not without struggles either.
11. Some candidates that could fit the bill? Alec Martinez of the Los Angeles Kings or Nick Jensen of the Detroit Red Wings. Neither will break the bank asset-wise but they would be a middle-pairing blueliner logging third-pairing minutes and, therefore, solidify Nashville’s depth come April, May and hopefully June.
12. One name that’s been floated by The Fourth Period is the Kings’ Jeff Carter. We all know The Fourth Period’s history with the Subban rumor this past summer which should suggest validity concerns. That said, if the Preds are, in fact, interested in Carter, it would go against Nashville’s DNA and would be near the complete opposite of Poile’s tendencies. At 34 years old, Carter would immediately become the oldest forward on the team, he’s a defensive liability with the fourth worst plus/minus rating on a bad LA team this season and it’s not a rental situation. The Predators would be stuck with him for three more seasons beyond the rest of this one at a ticket price of $5.27 million per year. In short, no thanks.
13. So let’s hope those Nashville scouts that have frequented Kings games this year have been eyeing Martinez.
14. Enough about the trade deadline. Johansen has really come into his own this season. We all know he can be a beast when skating alongside Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg but last Tuesday in Toronto was the first time all three of them skated together since November 10. That’s a 27-game span where Johansen was duct taped with a rotating cast of wingers. Everybody from Calle Jarnkrok to Ryan Hartman to Kevin Fiala to Craig Smith to Rocco Grimaldi got a chance to skate alongside him and yet he was still successful. If he can keep producing at this clip — and many believe he will assuming Arvidsson and Forsberg remain healthy the rest of the year — the former Columbus Blue Jacket will challenge his career best of 71 points (2014-15).
15. Just think about what Johansen’s numbers would be like if the power play was clicking as it should. Through January 15, Nashville has the fourth worst power play in the League. At just 14.2 percent, some major changes need to happen. I mentioned the possible addition of Simmonds earlier — and that certainly would fix things (at least to some degree) overnight — but there needs to be more movement, more bodies in front and much less predictability (i.e. throwing it across the box looking for the perfect play or the “bombs away!” mentality from the point). Tuesday against Washington, for example, the Preds held possession inside the Caps zone for an entire 2:00 advantage but there was no movement (aside from sending or collecting a pass). It’s no surprise they didn’t score on that opportunity.
16. Let’s just say the man advantage was ranked 16th, right in the middle of the NHL. Not great but not putrid. That would mean they’d be clicking at nearly 5.4 percent higher and, therefore, would have roughly four more wins in the “W” column. Those four wins would give them 68 points, good enough for second in the entire NHL and a full six points up on Winnipeg in the Central. Put simply, just an average power play would change a lot.
17. Special teams, as a whole, are a concern. They also have the 18th best penalty kill in the League (79.2) which isn’t anything to write home about either.
18. In his five games since returning from injury, Forsberg has four goals, a game-winner, an assist and the top line looks even more dominant than usual.
19. Against the Chicago Blackhawks on the most recent road trip, Forsberg registered seven shots on goal, tying his season-best (three other outings). In all four of those games, he’s scored at least once.
20. In fact, Forsberg has registered seven (or more) shots on goal 15 times in his NHL career. He’s scored at least one goal in 12 of them, he’s notched 27 points and Nashville has a 10-2-3 record.
21. Johansen’s other linemate, Arvidsson, has nine goals in his last nine games.
22. If Arvidsson can manage 14 goals in the final 34 games of the season, he’ll break his career high of 31 set in 2016-17. Not bad for a guy who was passed over in two NHL Drafts before finally being picked by Nashville in the fourth round of 2014. That’s called “getting good value” in the biz.
23. Can we talk about how good a season Ekholm is having? With 36 points, he’s already set his new career high with basically half the season left and he’s taking care of his own end as well. He’s second on the team with an impressive plus-21 rating.
24. The only Preds player with a higher rating than Ekholm? Colton Sissons. His plus-25 leads the club, his 10 goals is a new personal best and, if he can manage seven more assists in the remaining 34 games, he’ll break that career high too. (That’s a “one assist every five games” average, by the way.)
25. What kind of surprise has Grimaldi been? Yes, he only has eight points in a gold sweater but this is a guy you notice every single time he’s on the ice. His hustle rivals only Arvidsson and his constant buzzing around the puck carrier on the forecheck creates turnover or forces bad decisions.
26. He’s seen action in 29 NHL contests this year, the most of his pro career despite appearing in at least four games in each of his four previous professional seasons.
27. Oh, and then he went and did this on Tuesday night.
28. And his mom crying in the stands after scoring just his second goal of the season during the Mom’s Trip on December 31? How precious was that?
29. Speaking of the Mom’s Trip… what a great experience for the players and their families. If you haven’t seen the incredible video feature by Lynne Koester, you need to.
30. Di Guiseppe (who played in three games before clearing waivers en route to the Milwaukee Admirals) and Anthony Richard (who was an emergency call-up due to a sudden illness to Nick Bonino) are the only two skaters who have played for the Preds this season and not registered a point. Everybody else has at least three.
31. Rinne and Saros have yet to register an assist this season.
32. Rinne managed one last season while Saros ripped off three despite playing in 33 less games.
33. Through January 9 last year, Rinne was 21-8-3 with three shutouts. This year? He’s a more modest 17-11-3 with three shutouts but that has more to do with the injury bug that pained the top of the roster for the past two months than anything else.
34. Turris amassed 16 points in his first 21 games this season, seemingly silencing the concern surrounding him after a pretty miserable playoff last April and May. In the nine games before his latest addition to the IR, however, he managed only two points, registered a minus-3 rating and posted an uncharacteristic 11 penalty minutes.
35. When he’s healthy, can Turris return to his early season form? If so, the Predators will have an offensive weapon come April. If not, that six-year, $36 million contract he signed when he was traded from Ottawa to Nashville is going to start looming large in the minds of the fanbase.
36. The Predators have sold out 132 consecutive games at Bridgestone Arena.
37. With 11 goals, 11 helpers and 22 points in his 47 games, Nick Bonino should blow right past his totals from last season (12-13-25).
38. Bonino’s value is more than scoring, of course. Just look at that stickcheck that saved an almost for sure goal when Saros came out wondering at the end of the first period Tuesday night.
39. In Milwaukee, Emil Pettersson once again leads the team in scoring. His 26 points are two more than Richard and five more than defenseman Matt Donovan.
40. Goaltender Troy Grosenick has been a stud for the Admirals. He leads the AHL in goals against average (2.38) and save percentage (.924) among goalies who have played in 20 or more games.
41. Sure, there were only four home games in the month of January but get ready for February. The Preds will play 14 games in the 28-day month including a whopping nine at home.
42. Last but certainly not least, I hope you’re excited for Sunday, February 10. After Nashville takes on the St. Louis Blues in an 11:30am start, the NWHL brings it’s All-Star Game to Bridgestone Arena. I hope to see you at both events! And, in case you want to be ready for the occasion, you can buy All-Star gear from their official store here.