Artemi Panarin. Mark Stone. Matt Duchene. Whichever player is on your Trade Deadline wish list for the Nashville Predators comes with a cost.
And not just the cost of player(s) and assets going to the other team.
One of the more overlooked aspects of any trade is the whole “where will they fit?” aspect. But, even more overlooked than that is “who moves out so they can move in?”
There’s been a lot of chatter the past couple weeks about General Manager David Poile possibly swinging for the fences this year. Since Nashville has already addressed their net-front presence and penalty kill specialist problems with the acquisition of Brain Boyle, “swinging for the fences” means three players and three players only: Panarin, Stone and Duchene.
Let’s look at the different scenarios as they pertain to the two questions above, “where will they fit?” and “who moves out so they can move in?”
DISCLAIMER: For the continuity of this exercise, it’s important to note that all scenarios are presented with the assumption that Poile doesn’t touch his NHL roster in whatever deal he makes. In other words, the cost would be top prospects and draft picks only.
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PANARIN
Artemi Panarin is a true finisher. He’s an elite talent, the likes of which rarely become available at the deadline. Even more rare is that he’s already on a contender. You may not think this matters but, in this case, it really does. The Columbus Blue Jackets have been a long suffering franchise. They have zero playoff series wins — zero! — in their 18-year existence. They currently sit third in the Metropolitan Division and, therefore, are a playoff team with hopes of doing some damage come April. You don’t just jettison your leading scorer and expect to still compete for your first ever conference semifinal appearance.
If Panarin were acquired, he’d immediately slide onto that second line and provide the Preds with a much-needed infusion of offense not named Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson or Filip Forsberg. But who would he skate with, who would be dishing him the puck and who would he be dishing to?
Obviously Kyle Turris would be his center but who’s on the other wing? Is it Kevin Fiala? He’s shown that he does have the potential to be a scoring threat himself (even though it hasn’t happened for him this season) and the thought of Fiala and Panarin creating magic together is enough to drool over.
But not so fast. Would Fiala and Panarin be defensively responsibly enough to skate on a line together? Would they willingly go into the dirty areas to retrieve pucks for one another? Fiala has a tendency to play on the perimeter so he can release his shot and is rarely seen mucking it up in the corners in order to jostle a puck free.
So it’s Craig Smith then. It’s not as sexy as Fiala but, with Smith’s speed and tenacity, he could crate space for Panarin. In addition, he frequently goes into the corners to fight for loose pucks and in an attempt to force mistakes by the opponent. His forecheck can be relentless and he’s no slouch on the back check either.
Great. So it’s Craig Smith, Kyle Turris and Artemi Panarin on that second line.
But what about Fiala? His skill level isn’t exactly set up for success in a third line role. But that’s what the addition of Panarin would mean. That the “future 30 goal scorer” (Poile’s words) is a third line player now. And, if he is, what happens to the Colton Sissons, Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok line that’s been working well this season? Who, of those three guys, can play — and fit in — on a fourth line in the National Hockey League?
Sissons is a modern day Marcel Goc. You can put him anywhere in the lineup and he does his job. He’s probably not set up for success down there but, when push comes to shove, that’s the situation the Preds are in. And, with the acquisition of Boyle, you add Ryan Hartman. With that combination of guys, the fourth line looks pretty good. It offers Nashville three players who can bring physicality while also providing some scoring punch, a line who’s defensively responsible and — bonus! — gives them two natural centers that can take faceoffs. If Boyle gets kicked out of the dot, Sissons can check in and not miss a beat. Oh and by the way, one is right handed and the other is left handed which gives that line even more versatility.
Not sure I’m thrilled with Fiala being on the third line and I’m especially not happy with breaking up Jarnkrok, Bonino and Sissons but here we are. The Panarin-added Predators lines could look like this:
Arvidsson-Johansen-Forsberg
Smith-Turris-Panarin
Jarnkrok-Bonino-Fiala
Sissons-Boyle-Hartman
But what about Rocco Grimaldi? Hasn’t he earned a full-time roster spot with his play this year? What about Miikka Salomaki? He’s certainly paid his dues. What about Freddie Gaudreau? History suggests he’s not intimidated by the bright lights of the playoffs stage. And what about Cody McLeod? Didn’t the team just trade for him citing that his “leadership in the locker room” was invaluable?
STONE
Mark Stone is the best all-around player available at the deadline. His gigantic 6’4”, 220 pound frame would add even more size to this lineup after they addressed that need with the Boyle trade. Statistically, he was better than a point-per-game player last year and is a point-per-game player this year with a total of 45 goals and 73 assists over those two seasons. Keep in mind Stone delivered that kind of production on really bad Ottawa Senators teams that have won a grand total of 49 games out of a possible 137 the last two campaigns.
Again, with a deliberate effort to keep the top line together, Stone would slot in alongside Turris (a guy he’s played with in the past) and either Fiala or Smith. This time, it could go either way but with Stone being a more well-rounded player than Panarin, Fiala could flank Turris with him and Smith could move down without much of a concern for defensive responsibility.
The third line still feels the ripple effect of adding a top six winger and, therefore, Smith joins Bonino and Jarnkrok while (using the same rationale as earlier) Sissons moves to the fourth line.
So, with Stone, the lines end up as follows:
Arvidsson-Johansen-Forsberg
Fiala-Turris-Stone
Jarnkrok-Bonino-Smith
Sissons-Boyle-Hartman
The questions remain about Grimaldi, Salomaki, Gaudreau and McLeod but there’s no way around it. They just seem to be collateral damage and become support pieces if the Preds get into injury (or match-up) trouble.
DUCHENE
Matt Duchene has long been rumored to Nashville. The seed was planted all the way back during the 2016 NHL All-Star Weekend when he joined Lee Brice on stage during the festivities. Then, over a year later, he randomly had an Instagram post that featured him in a t-shirt that said “HOME TEAM” with the tri-star of the Tennessee state flag as the “O” in “HOME”.
An acquisition of Duchene would most likely mean his becoming Nashville’s second line center, flanked by Fiala and Smith. That combination has a lot of potential and could finally give the Preds the depth scoring threat they’re looking for.
So Turris, the man Poile committed a six-year, $36 million contract to, would become a third line center. Pretty impressive center depth on paper but hardly what the two parties had in mind when the deal was made back in November of 2017.
Nevertheless, that third line would now be Sissons and Jarnkrok with Turris. An upgrade in offense probably but now the big “second line center” free agent signing Poile made in the summer of 2017 (Bonino) doesn’t have a roster spot.
Remember, Boyle was acquired for specific reasons so he’s not coming out of the lineup. That makes Bonino a wing on the third or fourth line because they’re not going to scratch a $4.1 million/year player who very well could end up with his best statistical season since 2014-15.
With the domino effect of Duchene in the mix, the lines could look something like this:
Arvidsson-Johansen-Forsberg
Fiala-Duchene-Smith
Jarnkrok-Turris-Bonino
Sissons-Boyle-Hartman
Once again, Grimaldi, Salomaki, Gaudreau and McLeod are all on the shelf waiting to be dusted off.
STONE and DUCHENE
I was a guest on SiriusXM’s NHL Network Radio this past weekend and host Nick Alberga floated the idea of the Preds trading for both Matt Duchene and Mark Stone. This idea intrigued me and prompted an answer that sparked the entire post you’re reading now. I found myself explaining to the listeners that, on paper, it would be a total coup. After all, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out you upgrade your team overnight by adding Stone and Duchene.
But then I found myself wondering aloud, where would they put them?
Okay, yes, they’re second liners. Duh. But do they make Duchene play wing with Stone on his opposite side and keep Turris as the pivot? It would not only earn them “the Ottawa line” nickname but the Preds top six would actually rival the top six of the Winnipeg Jets, the team that warrants these moves in the first place.
That would force Fiala and Smith down to the third line which doesn’t sound good until you realize that they just kept 2/3 of their second line together and, therefore, basically have a second line as the third line. That’s the definition of scoring depth. Put Bonino between them and that’s not bad.
The fourth line is where it gets messy. Boyle’s in regardless due to the reasons mentioned earlier which means one of Calle Jarnkrok, Colton Sissons or Ryan Hartman will find themselves on the outside looking in and that won’t go over well. Now, it’s the playoffs. Somebody’s going to get hurt and miss some time. Wouldn’t every team love to call a Hartman out of their reserves?
If Poile throws up a huge Hail Mary and completes the pass in the end zone for a touchdown, plucking both Stone and Duchene from Ottawa, Nashville’s lines could look like this:
Arvidsson-Johansen-Forsberg
Duchene-Turris-Stone
Fiala-Bonino-Smith
Sissons-Boyle-Jarnkrok
The point of this exercise is that’s not as simple as adding players. There’s a lot more to it and Poile’s job isn’t an easy one.
After reading this, what would you do? Are the lines in each scenario how you’d have them? Let us know on Twitter. Tag @1025thegame and @govertime in your thoughts.
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PHOTO CREDIT: Michael Gallagher // Penalty Box Radio
