The pre-season slate has come to an end and the Nashville Predators are now officially headed into their 2019-20 season. There are quite a few question marks and interesting storylines headed in with them.
You know how Elliotte Friedman has his 31 Thoughts? Well, here are my 42 Observations for the Preds who are embarking on a season with a lot of hype and hope surrounding it.
- Let’s start with the pre-season… the team threw us a curveball when they recalled eight players from the Milwaukee Admirals to play in the exhibition finale in Carolina. Alex Carrier, Jeremy Davies, Rem Pitlick, Anthony Richard, Eeli Tolvanen, Yakov Trenin, Josh Wilkins and goaltender Ken Appleby all played on Friday night (sans Appleby who was there for insurance) when everybody — including me — assumed the Preds would treat the final game as a regular season tune-up.
- They very much did not. The only veterans who skated out against the Hurricanes were Ryan Johansen, Kyle Turris, Matt Duchene and Craig Smith.
- All were returned to Milwaukee on Saturday morning, as expected.
- Fun fact: Wilkins is a Raleigh, North Carolina native and played three years at Providence before turning pro after last season. He signed with the Predators as an undrafted free agent and got to play in front of his hometown fans Friday night.
- Defenseman Jeremy Davies came over from the New Jersey Devils in the PK Subban trade this past summer and has done nothing but impress since his arrival. He scored 71 points (in 73 games) for Northeastern University the past two seasons — remember, that’s from the blueline — and he really looked like he belonged in camp. He’ll start his pro career down in Milwaukee but that might only be because he can.
- Davies (like Pitlick and Tolvanen) doesn’t have to be exposed to waivers in order to be sent down. Veterans like Matt Irwin, Steven Santini, Freddie Gaudreau and Miikka Salomaki all would so, in order to not lose those guys for nothing, the team will most likely keep them in the fold while sending the younger kids down so they can adapt to the pro game without being thrown to the sharks in the NHL.
- Speaking of roster decisions, if it were up to me, I would expose all four. I love Gaudreau more than most, Irwin is a great quote in the room, it seems like Salomaki has been here forever and Santini was the veteran part of the Subban deal. All that said, Gaudreau doesn’t improve the lineup when he’s in it, Irwin is an analytics whipping boy, Salomaki can’t stay healthy and, even when he is, he’s not “the wrecking ball” he used to be before the injuries and, if another team claimed Santini, it would make the Subban deal look even less impressive.
- But, again, Nashville could potentially lose those guys for nothing so I understand the argument to keep all of them.
- Daniel Carr is another interesting name. Ever since the Preds signed him, all we’ve heard is how they believe he’s an NHL player and how they signed him with the intention of him providing some depth scoring from the wing. He’s shown some hustle, made a pretty pass or two and developed some decent chemistry with Rocco Grimaldi — which is weird because I came into camp thinking those two were fighting for the same roster spot — but I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s a full-time NHL player, especially on a team with this much talent up and down the lineup. That’s just me — and I certainly hope I’m wrong — but I call ’em as I see ’em.
- Will Turris embrace his new position on the wing? He’s looked really good during the pre-season and, if he can regain his confidence, we should see a return to the 50-point player he’s been over most of his career. More on that later.
- Since it can’t get any worse — literally — Nashville should see improvement to it’s power play this season. The most promising thing I’ve noticed so far is the drop-pass seems to have all but gone away. The zone entries are clean and they’re often using one-touch passes to establish possession. The defense can no longer be overly aggressive and, therefore, forces fewer mistakes.
- Just to remind you, the Preds were 31st of 31 on the man advantage last season with an abysmal 12.9% success rate.
- For context, the Chicago Blackhawks were 15th — right in the middle of the pack — and they converted 20.2% of the time.
- I saw the NHL.com writers release their Calder Trophy predictions for rookie of the year. If I was predicting my ballot, the top five would go like this: Cale Makar (COL), Kaapo Kakko (NYR), Jack Hughes (NJ), Dante Fabbro (NSH) and Alexandre Texier (CBJ), in that order.
- Plain and simple, Fabbro looks ready for prime time. While certainly talented, you wouldn’t call him a mass point-producer, however. And, of course, the Preds have a gluttony of talent on the blueline so he probably won’t see much power play time either. All that said, if Fabbro is paired with Roman Josi, he may draw the attention of those looking to watch the veteran for Norris Trophy consideration. That may be enough to earn him some votes even if he doesn’t put up blistering numbers.
- Speaking of Josi, this contract thing needs to get done. You know General Manager David Poile doesn’t want to let this thing go too long and you know the player doesn’t want to be answering questions about it in November or *gulp* later.
- Here’s something I find fascinating… on the heels of the trade deadline this past February, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun dropped an insightful nugget on the Two Man Advantage Podcast. LeBrun said “When he went to the wire with Ryan Suter and Suter went to Minnesota [in 2012], David Poile made a conscious decision that he would never go to the wire again with a core UFA. So, last summer, if Ryan Ellis doesn’t sign that extension one year out — I’m telling this you right now — Ryan Ellis is traded by the end of October this [season].”
- That nugget by Pierre from February should be sounding alarm bells throughout Smashville but nobody seems to be talking about it. Is Josi an exception to that rule because he’s the captain? Is he just too damn important to the success of this club that we’re ignoring the possibility? Is it unfathomable to imagine Josi skating in another team’s jersey? Whatever the case, this is something to keep an eye on.
- I’ve written quite a bit over the past few months (here’s just one example) about how Matt Duchene is overrated in terms of the hype surrounding him. The Haliburton, Ontario native averages just 54.7 points per season which hardly warrants the borderline “he’s the second coming!” hype attached to him. Also of note, he’s been a 70-point player twice in his career. Both came in contract years, however, and that’s a red flag for some.
- I’ve also written quite a bit over the past few months that I believe he’s an excellent addition to the team and improves the roster without question. Therefore, the potential is exciting and Music City should feel fortunate that he’s really wanted to be here for a long time. His goal scoring prowess and the way he can buy time in the offensive zone in order to make the best play possible are true assets to the Preds and, frankly, worth every penny of that seven-year $56 million contract he signed July 1.
- Darren McFarland and I discussed this on the Post-Game Show and I’ve been thinking about it ever since. Juuse Saros has been asked to start games more and more the past few seasons. He started 19 games three years ago, 23 in 2017-18 and 27 last season. Is there room for him to start even more often? Should a team ask a guy — a guy who’s only 16 months removed from a being presented with the Vezina Trophy, by the way — to give up 30 starts?
- I asked Pekka Rinne about something similar a couple weeks ago. You can read the entire quote here but, in it, Rinne told me “He really pushes me and I feel like I have something to give him.”
- For the first time in a long time (ever?), the Nashville Predators are a cap team. According to CapFriendly, they have just $1.3 million in cap room. That’s not a lot.
- When he was made available to the media during training camp, I came into that Poile press conference with one goal and that goal was to ask him about his lack of cap flexibility. He smiled and whispered “Not that comfortable” which, like a stand up comedian, killed in the room. He then gave me an answer that included “It’ll be really interesting to see how it plays out for everybody. How it effects your trading ability if you need to or want to make a change during the season. What kind of flexibility and opportunity do you have at the trade deadline? We’ve always been in a good position where we could add substantial salary at the trade deadline in recent years. So it’s a different world and I’m happy with our team.” He paused and then added, with a laugh, “I just wish it was for less money.”
- After being the AGM in Nashville for 12 years, Paul Fenton got the big boy gig in Minnesota a year and a half ago. Here we sit in September of the following year and he’s already been fired. If you somehow missed all of that, you need to take five minutes and go read this piece by The Athletic’s Michael Russo. It’s — how do I say this? — enthralling.
- Please let me take a moment to say Mr. Fenton was always nice to me. He was the first front office member we ever had as a live guest on The 303:30 podcast back in 2011, I interviewed him several times for the Pre-Game Show on 102.5 The Game and he was one of the first to see me in the hallways and call me by name.
- My favorite Paul Fenton story, however, is not a shining moment for me personally. Matter of fact, it’s rather embarrassing. But this is the best way to convey how nice he was to me. It was November 30, 2017 and I was at the rink for morning skate so I could interview him for air later that night. It was my 12th interview for the Pre-Game Show already that season and I was craving something other than the same ol’ same ol’. Plus, the Preds had just dropped their ECHL affiliate mid-season and they’d been involved in the three-team trade that brought Turris to Music City just a couple weeks prior so I figured he could bring some insight to the listeners. Here’s where the story picks up… My son had been sick the night before and I got very little sleep as a result. I was so tired that, when I turned my recorder on and opened my mouth, more sounds come out than articulated words. He rolled with it like a champ but I was in my own head all of a sudden. I tried to rescue my confidence by falsely believing I could improvise the next question. I did muster a question but it was hardly clear and concise, something I already struggle with. Again, he handled it perfectly and, eventually I get to the final question in which I’d planned a jovial moment. My question, as written, was “Lots is being made of the new emphasis on slashing. You’re a former 30-goal scorer in the NHL, would your playing career have been any different had this emphasis been around in your time?” This would give him an opportunity to let his guard down, reflect on his own career, make a joke about he could’ve scored 50 and end the interview with a laugh. What came out of my mouth was “A lot has been made of the new slashing on emphasis. Wait… let me do that again. A lot has been made of the new rule emphasis on the slashing rule. You’re a former 20-goal scorer… what could you have done had this been enforced when you played all those years ago?” So, to recap, I’ve now called him old, I’ve discounted his production as a player by getting the stat wrong and I’ve tripped over myself. All this after he’d spent almost five minutes doing an interview that he didn’t have to do. Once again, he rolled with it and we were done. I felt terrible and apologized profusely. He slapped me on the shoulder, shook my hand and said “It happens, Jeremy. We’re good.” I’ll never forget that.
- For those wondering, the interview did, in fact, air on the Pre-Game Show that night. Of course, it was a very heavily edited version of that interview. After he left, I stood there rinkside and re-recorded the introduction, every question (just to make sure) and the outro so I could edit it all together later and make something out of this broadcasting travesty I had just subjected the frickin’ Assistant General Manager of a National Hockey League team to. Fast forward about six hours and a radio friend texted me “Wow Gover. Great stuff with Fenton tonight.” I laughed hysterically. If they only knew…
- So, while he seems to have a very bad wrap in Minnesota, he was always nice to me. Even in my second worst professional moment.
- (My worst moment was when, in a recorded interview, I introduced Anthony Bitetto as “Nashville Predators defenseman Nick Bitetto.” Nick Bitetto, by the way, is a real person who played for Ole Miss at the time.)
- I expect a bounce back season from both Ellis and Turris.
- It’s kind of hard to expect a “bounce back” season from a guy who set career highs in assists and points but I think it’s only fair to say that Ryan Ellis is a better player than his 7-34-41 stat line last year. If he gets time on the improved power play, he should have no problem improving on those numbers.
- As far as Turris, he averages 47 points per season since the lockout-shortened campaign of 2012-13. And, with four 50+ point seasons under his belt, that’s more the norm. I expect him to return to form and put up contributions in that ballpark.
- One thing I found quite interesting is that Turris had another weird year where he didn’t produce well. Back in 2015-16, he struggled with the injury bug and amassed just 30 points. That’s all too similar to what happened last season when he recorded just 23 points in 55 games. I wonder if there’s a pattern there. Not necessarily with staying healthy but if he just goes through an inconsistent season once every few years.
- We saw that hiccup with Smith a few years back as well. In 2016-17, the consistent 20-goal and 45-point scorer managed to pot just 12 goals and assist on just 17 others for a grand total of 29 points, well off his career average.
- I’m expecting big things from Tolvanen as well. Maybe not at the NHL level this year but I do expect him to dominate the AHL over the next few months. He’s determined to play with the big club, he tallied 35 points in 58 games as a rookie adapting to the North American sized ice last season with the Milwaukee Admirals and got better as the year went along. There’s nothing to prevent him from popping off 30 goals for the Ads and earning that call up while brimming with confidence and a new dedication to working hard away form the puck.
- The real question will be his attitude. How will Tolvanen feel when Pitlick gets called up before he does? If he takes it in stride, he’ll be next in line and earn some equity within the organization. If he doesn’t, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poile ship him out as part of a major deal at some point.
- Speaking of taking AHL duty in stride, I asked Davies about that very reality. He told me “It’s all about the attitude you have while you’re down there. For me, to have the opportunity to play pro, it’s great. I love playing hockey so wherever I play I always have a pretty good attitude about it. An exciting thing about the Nashville Predators organization is they’re known for developing players who are down there. I mean, the game plan doesn’t change. You just work hard every day, try to win games, listen to your teammates, the older guys, the coaches, anything you can take in and learn is going to help you and prepare you for when you get called up, if you do.”
- Continuing on the prospect front, Nashville drafted Niagara IceDogs forward Philip Tomasino in the first round of this past summer’s draft and Windsor Spitfires winger Egor Afanaseyev in the second. Both showed a ton of promise in the rookie tournament and during camp. They were sent back to their respective junior teams after just one pre-season game but that was more out of courtesy to them. They’re junior players for at least one more season. Let them get down there, join their teams and dominate the OHL en route to, hopefully, a Memorial Cup for one of them.
- Also in the system, but in the college ranks, is Preds prospect Jachym Kondelik of UConn. He and fellow Nashville prospect Tomas Vomacka will lead the Huskies through Hockey East play this year. As a freshman, Kondelik led the team in assists and was second in points last season. Vomacka served as back up in his freshman year but will own the crease this time around as Adam Huska has turned pro and joined the Hartford Wolfpack.
- Even before they were UConn teammates, Kondelik and Vomacka were best friends.
- Finally, my prediction for the 2019-20 Nashville Predators: 46 wins, 2nd place in the Central Division, 3rd place in the Western Conference, Roman Josi will finish be the Norris Trophy runner-up.
