THE SITUATION
The Nashville Predators (30-23-8), through Saturday, sit just a single point out of the playoff race with two games in hand on the Winnipeg Jets and a whopping four games in hand on the Arizona Coyotes, the current Wild Card teams. The problem, of course, is the lack of consistency for Nashville. Their dominance in October is so far in the past that it seems like it happened several years ago. They started the season 8-3-2 — and looked like a legit Stanley Cup contender in doing so — but, since then, they’ve been a very average 22-20-6.
“It’s kind of been this roller coaster of .500,” forward Rocco Grimaldi told me last week on the Post-Game Show. “I feel like there’s been points in the last couple months where we’ve been on a two-game win streak and we kinda feel good about ourselves but then, all of a sudden, we’re on a two or three game losing streak.”
Further confounding fans and media alike is the fact that the Preds have completed season sweeps against the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues and New York Islanders as well as secured three out of the possible four points against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Those impressive results are on Nashville’s 2019-20 resume but, then again, so are losses to the League’s five worst clubs, the Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators, Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks (a couple even in blowout fashion). Also on that resume is a mid-season coaching change and, to Grimaldi’s point, only one three-game win streak since October.
The bottom line? We don’t know who they are. Are they the team that had the puck on a string and could score at will in October? Are they the team that couldn’t possess the puck for more than 0:12 in the attacking zone on the man advantage the past couple months? Are they something in between? This is the very puzzle that General Manager David Poile and Assistant GM’s Brian Poile and Jeff Kealty have to solve before the NHL’s Trade Deadline on Monday afternoon.
Are they buyers? Should they use assets to address needs in an effort to make the post season? Are they sellers? Should they capitalize on the value they could get for their pending unrestricted free agents? Do they stand pat? Should they keep said pending unrestricted free agents in hopes of October making a triumphant return? That’s a lot to sacrifice on the premise of hope.
THE BASICS
Pending UFA’s who could be dealt: Craig Smith, Mikael Granlund, Rocco Grimaldi, Dan Hamhuis
Other roster players who could be dealt: Kyle Turris, Nick Bonino
Positions of need: defense (specifically the third pair)
Possible bargaining chips: Eeli Tolvanen, Alexandre Carrier, Yakov Trenin, multiple 2nd round picks in 2020, multiple 3rd round picks in 2020
THE SKINNY (SELLER)
I don’t think anybody wants to see Craig Smith or Mikael Granlund go. That said, if you look at other deals that have been made recently, Nashville might be able to get a second round pick for Smith and a first round pick for Granlund. All it takes is one team to believe that one of those guys is the difference in their Stanley Cup hopes, just as the Capitals did back in 2014 when they acquired Martin Erat from the Preds in exchange for blue chip prospect Filip Forsberg. Washington thought they were one scoring winger away from a Cup. Poile famously got the better end of that deal but it proves the point that all it takes is one.
Smith is a consistent 20-goal scorer and has repeatedly posted 40-plus point seasons. While he can be frustrating at times because his production is streaky, you know what you’re getting from him. That could make him attractive to a Tampa, a Washington, a Boston, an Edmonton or even a Philadelphia.
Granlund presents a different issue, however. The Oulu, Finland native posted back-to-back 60-point seasons with the Minnesota Wild before the Preds acquired him straight up for disgruntled young winger Kevin Fiala at last year’s deadline. Granlund struggled mightily under former Head Coach Peter Laviolette, however, and only since John Hynes took over behind the bench has he turned into the player Poile thought he traded for. And that raises more complicated questions that the Preds brass has to answer by Monday. If Granlund is back to his old self under Hynes, and Hynes is here for the next few seasons, wouldn’t it stand to reason that Nashville would want to re-sign him? But then there’s the opposite way of thinking about it. Why not strike while the iron’s hot? Granlund has nine goals and three assists in the 20 games since the coaching change, which is close to his proven 60-point level. Could they trade him for possibly as much as a first round pick knowing he’s an unrestricted free agent in July and may lose him for nothing?
Adding another wrinkle is the notion that Nashville’s system has been depleted of talent. After years of being a buyer at the deadline, there aren’t a whole lot of potential game-breakers in the organization. Sure, it boasts named like Eeli Tolvanen, Rem Pitlick, Jeremy Davies, Philip Tomasino, Igor Afanseyev and goaltender Connor Ingram but, beyond those, it’s pretty bare. If, for example, Granlund and Smith each command a first round pick in return, don’t you at least have to entertain the idea if you’re Poile? Sure, they’ll probably be second half first round picks due to the quality of the teams asking for their services but that’s still three first round picks Nashville would have in it’s back pocket come June 26. And, if you don’t feel this year’s team is a true contender anyway…?
Grimaldi is another name I’m sure Preds fans aren’t too happy about seeing on this list. His 30 points are seventh on the team in scoring and if you think he’s going to command a large raise from his current one-year, $1 million bridge deal, you may consider any decent return.
I think it goes without saying that Nashville would love to have him back and that he’d love to be back. From the team’s perspective, he’s been one of the few consistent bright spots in 2019-20 and, from the player’s perspective, this is where he finally found a home. After being drafted in the third round of the 2011 draft, the Anaheim, California native bounced around in the Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche organizations before finally earning a full-time NHL spot in Music City.
THE SKINNY (BUYER)
Despite all the chaos and inconsistencies this season, Nashville is just a single point out of a playoff spot. Usually that’s enough to be at least a moderate buyer this time of year. You know, ship out a guy who’s not coming back, try not to touch your farm system and bring in a relatively inexpensive player who can address an area of need? Well, there’s been no bigger need for this hockey club over the past 18 months than a second pairing-caliber defenseman on the third pair. Put simply, Yannick Weber, Matt Irwin and Jarred Tinordi are serviceable NHL defenseman for teams in a pinch. They are not, however, full-time NHL blueliners, which is what they’ve been in gold. Furthermore, Dan Hamhuis is not what he once was but I’m left to wonder if that’s because he’s over-compensating for his defense partners. Again, nobody’s expecting him to be an all-star — and when you’re part of a core that features Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and Dante Fabbro, a perfectly good third pairing defenseman can pale in comparison — but I have a hard time believing his inconsistencies are just because of his age. Regardless, Poile has to solve that issue or this team’s not going anywhere. They might make the playoffs, sure, but they’re limited in their potential of advancement without an upgrade to the blueline.
Alec Martinez (LA) was at the top of my list of potential players who could upgrade the Nashville defense overnight. He went to Vegas last week, unfortunately. Marco Scandella (MON) was also. He got shipped to the Blues. Brendan Dillon (SJ) was up there. He was dealt to the Capitals.
That basically leaves New Jersey rear guard — no, not that one — Sami Vatanen. The 28-year old right-shot defenseman is a guy who could come in, be paired with Hamhuis and immediately upgrade the core.
It’s more than just bolstering the back end. It’s also for insurance. We saw the Preds stretch their limits when Ellis missed six full weeks after that egregious hit by Corey Perry in the Winter Classic. What if the playoffs were on the line and another top defenseman went down? Does Nashville feel comfortable gambling with their post season chances by putting Weber, Irwin or Tinordi into the lineup because — God forbid — Josi or Ekholm get hurt?
Other possible names that could be of interest to Poile and the Preds are Toronto’s Tyson Barrie, Ottawa’s Ron Hainsey, the New York Rangers’ Tony DeAngelo and Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien.
Each could address the need but each come with a list of question marks that I won’t bore you with here. Due to the position the team is in, this post is already long enough.
THE SKINNY (STANDING PAT)
The most dangerous thing the Preds can do is stand pat. If they keep Smith, Granlund and Grimaldi, they’ll likely have missed the rare opportunity to flip players who very well could go elsewhere this summer for first or second round picks, thereby increasing their draft capital. Nashville hasn’t been in that position very often and could certainly use an infusion of additional talent (not to mention lower cap hits). Furthermore, not doing anything would also mean that they’re content with their current prospect pool which is also a gamble.
Another thing it would do is unquestionably make a statement from the front office to the players that the struggles of the season are on the guys in the room. In other words, Poile would not be offering a “government buyout” for the inconsistent play, coaching change and all-too-often frustrating moments.
Essentially he’d be saying “You guys put us here. You guys work it out.”
I mean, let’s face it, could you blame him? He’s locked up Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi, Viktor Arvidsson, Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok in the hopes of keeping the core of this club together for a long time. The team didn’t have any answer for the offensively potent Dallas Stars last April so, in the off-season, he signed prized free agent Matt Duchene. The power play was the worst in the League so he went and hired a fourth bench coach in Dan Lambert. The team was inexplicably looking discombobulated on a night-in, night-out basis so he fired Laviolette.
Not sure what else he can do. It might be time to ride or die.
BOTTOM LINE
We don’t know what this team is. Are they the Cup contender we saw back in October when everything looked effortless? Are they the team who lost nine games in November where everything was a struggle? Are they the middle-of-the-road 11-8-1 team they’ve been since Coach Hynes took over for Laviolette?
Poile, Poile and Kealty have roughly 24 hours to decide and then make moves accordingly.
Buckle up, Preds fans.
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GRAPHIC via NHL
