On Selection Sunday the SEC received a record eight bids to the NCAA Tournament. Turns out Mike Tranghese wasn’t stealing money after all…he still is. While the conference will celebrate this, remember what happens in March typically creates the narrative of how “good” a conference actually was. Last year, the ACC received nine bids, when North Carolina was the lone team left after the first weekend the narrative was no longer about how great the league was, instead pundits were calling the ACC overrated. Three of the final eight teams—Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky—happened to be from the SEC. What was the narrative? A league that only received three bids the year prior now had three of the final eight, thus the SEC was “improved”. Either way, it doesn’t matter how many teams go to the Final Four or how many teams don’t get past the first weekend. In March, it’s survive and advance. Here’s a look at the SEC teams in the Big Dance and who has a chance to go far in the SEC Starting Five:
Tennessee (No. 3 South Region)
The Volunteers missed out on a visit to Nashville but still have a great shot at earning a home court advantage at the South regional finals in Atlanta. The Volunteers tipoff in Dallas Thursday afternoon against Wright State out of the Horizon League. The Raiders make their first appearance to the Big Dance since 2007 after reaping the benefits of top seed Northern Kentucky getting upset in the conference tournament. In terms of KenPom numbers, this is a bad matchup for Wright State. The Raiders rank 245th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Volunteers are 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency. UT should have little trouble getting past Wright State. A meeting with either Miami or Loyola-Chicago will await in the second round. There’s a good chance the Ramblers pull off the 11 over 6 upset as Miami guard Bruce Brown has been ruled out for the tournament, still recovering from a foot injury. Either way, the matchup favors the Vols. Awaiting Tennessee in Atlanta should be a partisan crowd along with the No. 2 seed Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincy won both the American regular season and conference tournament titles, an impressive feat but occurring in a watered-down league that only features three NCAA teams. Cincinnati boasts the No. 2 defense in terms of efficiency but isn’t the greatest offensive team. This would likely be a one-possession type ball game but Tennessee’s experience in the SEC should carry them to the Elite Eight. At that point, the Vols are likely to face No. 1 overall seed Virginia, No. 4 seed Arizona or No. 5 Kentucky for the fourth time. I’d give the Vols a chance to make it to the programs first Final Four but it’ll be a tall task given the talent disparity that they could face.
Prediction: Elite Eight
Florida (No. 6 East Region)
Maybe the Gators have been waiting for March all along. Mike White’s team hasn’t been consistent unless you find their inconsistency to be consistent. Some night’s they look like the team that led Duke by 17 in the final of the PK80. Other nights they look like any average team who can be beaten by a non-NIT team like South Carolina. The experience of being a game away from the Final Four should be motivation enough for Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen. Hopefully, that motivation is passed along to the rest of the team. St. Bonaventure’s, having defeated UCLA in the First Four in Dayton, will be the Gators first opponent. The Bonnies won despite their top two scorers Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley shooting a combined 6 of 28 from the floor. It’s highly unlikely that those two have another off shooting game. The Gators better be prepared to defend and, more importantly, score. Texas Tech would likely be the next opponent, having an essential home game in Dallas. The Red Raiders are one of the top defensive teams in America, ranking third in KenPom but lack the experience that the Gators have. Given how the season has gone I could see Florida losing to St. Bonaventure or finally reaching its potential and going to the Final Four.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Kentucky (No. 5 South Region)
The Wildcats are the quintessential ‘boom or bust’ pick. Kentucky has won seven of its last eight games, including taking home its fourth straight SEC tournament title. All signs point to this team “putting it together” but as with a team comprised of freshmen, one can’t be too sure. Wenyen Gabriel’s emergence in St. Louis, earning All-Tournament honors, is a positive sign, along with the Cats ability to win without Jarred Vanderbilt, who is hampered by an ankle injury and unlikely to play this weekend in Boise. Talking to an assistant from an opposing SEC school, they raised concerns over whether Kentucky’s backcourt is good enough to win games in the tournament. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the Cats best player at times this season while receiving aid from Kevin Knox, including on Sunday when the pair combined for 47 of the Wildcats 77 points in the win over Tennessee. They’ll need to be prepared to score on Thursday, as Davidson is a team that is ultra reliant on the three-pointer—41 percent of its points come via the three ball. Davidson shot 26 of 53 from beyond the arc in a game earlier this year and just last weekend made 16 in a win over St. Bonaventure. Kentucky will assuredly lose a three-point shooting contest to Davidson but has the athleticism to get past them, while also the tendency to shoot the ball poorly leading to an early exit. Kentucky should beat Davidson where in all likelihood they’ll face another Wildcat opponent in the Pac-12 regular season and tournament champions, Arizona. Arizona boasts the same level of talent as Kentucky, namely projected No. 1 overall pick in this June’s NBA Draft, Deandre Ayton. What separates Arizona is their experience having gone to the Sweet 16 with much of the same cast of characters a year ago. Kentucky very well could win this game, while they could very well get blown out. A win would spell a date with Virginia, where I think that’d be a horrible matchup in terms of how a patient would the Kentucky freshmen be against the Hoos No. 1 rated defensive. I buried Kentucky over a month ago. Either I’ll be validated when they lose to Davidson or made of fool of when they upset Arizona and Virginia and end up in San Antonio.
Prediction: Second Round
Alabama (No. 9 East Region)
The Crimson Tide followed the mold of Vanderbilt turning a top 5 strength of schedule and quality wins into an at-large bid despite 15 losses. Alabama has become the sexy pick to disrupt brackets thanks to Collin Sexton, who for two days took over the SEC Tournament. Sexton and the Tide ran out of gas in Saturday’s semifinal against Kentucky but should be rested for Thursday’s bout with Virginia Tech. The Crimson Tide face a team that has defeated the likes of Virginia, North Carolina and Duke, meaning it won’t be easy. The biggest question for the Tide will be the health of center Donta Hall. Hall practiced on Wednesday but Avery Johnson said he was “60-40” on whether Hall would play against the Hokies. Without Hall, I cannot see Bama defeating Virginia Tech, even with a strong game from Sexton. Hall has been Alabama’s most consistent player outside of Sexton and will be much needed. Were they to advance, Alabama could give Villanova a game but it’s hard to believe that the Wildcats, given their experience, would fall to the Tide.
Prediction: Lose in the First Round
Texas A&M (No. 7 West Region)
The Aggies had the potential to be the SEC’s best team but injuries and suspensions derailed those hopes. A&M is a better team on paper than their first round opponent in Providence but doesn’t have the same amount of tournament experience as the Friars, a team that just beat Xavier and took Villanova to overtime in the Big East title game. A&M can absolutely put a scare into No. 2 seed North Carolina on Sunday in Charlotte but it’s impossible for me to believe in them at this point.
Prediction: Lose in the First Round
Arkansas (No. 7 East Region)
I feel in love with the Razorbacks last week and immediately realized why this love affair couldn’t last. The Razorbacks have a dynamic backcourt in Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford. They boast an athletic freak of nature in Daniel Gafford. But they don’t play defense. A team like Butler, that is always disciplined, and annually finds success in the tournament is an awful matchup for the Hogs.
Prediction: Lose in the First Round
Auburn (No. 4 Midwest Region)
Had this been a month ago I would’ve been picking the Tigers to go to at least the second weekend, instead, Auburn has lost four of their last six and appears to be a team vulnerable for the 4-13 upset. The Tigers are too reliant on the three-point shot and lack the size necessary to overpower a mid-major foe. Jarrell Brantley of Charleston will be the best big man on the floor Friday evening in San Diego. That’s a problem. So are Joe Chealey and Grant Riller. The Tigers peaked in January. Never peak in January. I said last week, following the loss to Alabama, that I didn’t care who Auburn was playing in the first round, I was taking that team. Good thing it was a team I was already high on in the Cougars.
Prediction: Lose in the First Round
Missouri (No. 8 West Region)
Had Michael Porter Jr. knocked down the potential go-ahead three and looked like the top 5 NBA pick that we all anticipated last Thursday, we could be talking about Mizzou as a darkhorse Final Four contender. Instead, Porter Jr. shot 5 of 17, scoring 12 points and totaling 8 rebounds in a modest performance in his first game back from back surgery. Porter Jr. should be better after a week of practices but the Mizzou offense may still be out of sorts thanks to Jordan Barnett’s absence due to a DWI arrest last Friday in Columbia. Barnett is the Tigers second-leading scorer and has been nearly as valuable as All-SEC first team Kassius Robertson, in this mostly Porter Jr.-less season. Unless Porter Jr. returns to form I don’t see an experienced Mizzou team overcoming Florida State.
Prediction: Lose in the First Round
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