It’s almost March, my friends! We are inching closer and closer to the best sporting postseason event around: the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Now, I’m no Joe Lunardi. He is a master at this craft and the best of the best in terms of bracket forecasting. However, I’m nuts and have enough screws loose upstairs to analyze over 100 teams and resumes to determine who belongs in the this great event as of February 10th. Below, I’ll lay out my first projected field of 68 and discuss the teams that are on the bubble at length (with the traditional Last 4 In and First 4 OUT). There will be surprises where I go against the grain (like having Tennessee as high as a 3-seed and Wisconsin a 2) as well as having three non-Gonzaga WCC teams in the field and only three, yes THREE, teams in the ACC make the field and plenty of room for argument as to which resume I have completely underestimated (Memphis has a reasonable case to clap back against my bracket and my assessment of their body of work), but that’s the fun of the whole process!

LAST 4 IN

1. North Carolina (17-7, 9-4 in ACC). As a traditional power, it’s weird seeing UNC in a position to scratch and claw their way into the Big Dance. However, that’s where they find themselves right now and unless they win the ACC Tournament, will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. Here’s the thing: while this team has a lot of talent and experience and look the part at times: they have zero impressive wins. The Tar Heels are 0-7 against Q1 teams and the most impressive win they have is a blowout at home against fellow bubble dweller, Michigan. So why do I have them in over some teams with multiple Q1 wins? They have a favorable NET ranking (41) and KenPom ranking (43) and have yet to lose a game in Q2-Q4. The flaws of every other team I examine on the bubble has multitudes of losses in those quadrants, but North Carolina doesn’t. I don’t LOVE putting a team with no eye-popping wins in, but they have avoided the loss that will keep them out. So until then (with a weak remaining schedule in a BAD ACC, it’s certainly possible), the Heels are speaking in.
2. Creighton (14-8, 6-5 Big East). This Creighton team is the Anti-Tar Heels. The Blue Jays have the lowest NET ranking of any at-large in the field (76) and a very low KenPom rating (77). However, while the metrics save the Heels resume, the four Q1 wins (including a 20-point thrashing of Villanova, a 2OT win at Marquette and a close win at UConn) gives this team plenty of quality wins that make them deserving of a bid despite the non-ideal offensive and defensive metrics. They have a pair of Q3 losses, but avenged one of them (Butler). The Arizona State loss at home looks more gross now that the Sun Devils are in a 7-14 tailspin, but the quality of wins more than balances that out.
3. San Francisco (18-6, 6-4 WCC). The Fighting Bill Russell’s look to get back in the NCAA Tournament and they have built a resume that can do it. Like North Carolina, they have a favorable NET ranking (42) and KenPom ranking (41) but unlike UNC, have won multiple Q1 games and avoided the dreaded Q4 loss until this week when they dropped a close game against Portland. The loss against Portland might be what eventually takes them out if they can’t grab another Q1 win against Gonzaga on February 24th OR get a Q1 win against Saint Mary’s or BYU in the WCC Tournament.
4. San Diego St. (14-6, 6-3 in MWC). The Aztecs find themselves as the last team in the field of 68. They struggled against Q1 opponents (1-5) but are elite defensively. They’re the number one defensive team in the country according to KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating and even though the Colorado State win is technically a Q2 (barely) they held Colorado State’s Top-25 Kenpom rated offense to under 50 and beat them by a whopping 30 points. When SDSU is able to put up points on occasion, they can beat anyone, but that isn’t always the case. I think this elite defense and signature win over Saint Mary’s barely gets them in.

FIRST 4 OUT

1. Notre Dame (16-7, 10-3). In the next week, it’s very likely I swap out Notre Dame and San Diego State. Notre Dame has the more impressive win with a December W over Kentucky before they got their mess together. But Notre Dame is lower in NET and 22 spots lower in KenPom ranking. The ACC is very weak but to Notre Dame’s credit, they have beaten up on most of the conference. With both teams having the same average NET ranking win (156), SDSU gets the slight edge with the better average NET ranking loss. I have the Irish out, but not by much (sorry, Pete Weber).
2. Miami (17-7, 9-4). The ‘Canes have one less ACC win than Notre Dame, have better wins but worse losses than Notre Dame. If the ACC wasn’t so weak all the way around, maybe they get themselves in (they helped themselves a ton with a win at Duke and a blowout home win against North Carolina). But the non-conference slate was beyond underwhelming. A November win against North Texas on a neutral floor looks better now than it did at the time, it won’t be enough to make this resume good enough for me to allow into the club.
3. Mississippi State (14-9, 5-5 SEC). I love this Bulldogs roster. Iverson Molinar is easily the best player in the SEC that the casual fan hasn’t watched a ton of and is worth the price of admission. However, only one Q1 win and multiple Q3 losses have ruined the resume to the point where they have much work to do. The loss to Tennessee was a lost opportunity but games at LSU, at Alabama and a home tilt against Auburn give them three big opportunities to get Q1 wins that could possibly leap frog them past teams like San Diego State and San Francisco.
4. Florida (16-8, 6-5). The Gators have the same issue that Mississippi State has, only one Q1 win. They have a more favorable NET ranking, a decent KenPom rating but one glaring, nasty skid mark on the resume: a home loss to Texas Southern in December. The loss is a Q4 loss and Texas Southern came in to Gainesville as an 0-7 team and left with a win that helped turn things around. Still, despite Texas Southern’s efforts to get to 10-10 on the season, the 15-point home loss still acts as the worst that any team has on the bubble by far.

The Bracket

And finally, the full 68-team bracket is linked here below. Note: ignore the bracket saying 2014. It was the only high quality bracket I could get my filthy its on to edit online, so ignore that and rip me apart for the content of the bracket itself.

Projected 68-team bracket